Highlights By now, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and Russia have figured out that if each cuts 500k b/d of production, the revenue enhancement for both will be well worth the foregone volumes. Even without additional cuts from other…

Special Report

In a February Special Report titled "Assessing Fair Value In FX Markets" we introduced a set of long-term valuation models based on various fundamentals. We have updated the results and added KRW, INR, PHP, HKD, CLP and COP to our…

We put the odds of an oil-production freeze agreement between OPEC and Russian officials next week in Algiers at slightly better than a coin toss.

Forget about the production-cooperation pact agreed between Russia and KSA over the weekend at the G20 meeting in China. With or without it, rebalancing of the oil market will force global inventories to draw beginning in 2016Q4 and…

Clearing the refined-product overhang in the global storage markets is not as straightforward as it used to be: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), China, and India all are making concerted efforts to boost refining capacity, which is…

While the Fed's recent forward guidance leading markets to increase the odds of a policy-rate hike earlier than previously expected will restrain the recovery in crude oil prices, fundamentals will dominate price formation now that…

Special Report

For the foreseeable future, Saudi Arabia will remain a price-taker, and not a price-maker in the oil markets; While the economy will face a growth recession, the kingdom has sufficient resources to weather the pain; Policymakers are…

The reflation rally continues. Despite our bearish outlook for the year, we think the risks of the current rally lie to the upside given China's redoubling of stimulus at the expense of reform. Populist troubles are picking up in…