Russia & EM Europe
Executive Summary EU-Russia Energy Trade To Persist
Russia Takes Ukraine: What Next…
Russian Risk Assets: Not The Time For Bottom-Fishing…
Executive Summary Russian Invasion Scenarios And Likely Equity Impact
Ukraine Crisis Decision Tree…
Don’t Be Complacent About The Russian Standoff…
Highlights Our top five “black swan” risks for 2022: Social unrest in China; Russian invasion of all of Ukraine; unilateral Israeli strikes on Iran; a cyber attack that goes kinetic; and a failure of OPEC 2.0. Too early to buy the dip on Russian assets: President Biden says Putin will…
Ukraine Escalation Would Support Outperformance Of US Assets…
Ukraine Tensions: Unresolved…
A Ukraine Crisis?
A…
Highlights A partial reinvasion of Ukraine cannot be ruled out. The constraints on Russia are not prohibitive, especially amid global energy shortages. On this issue, it is better to be alarmist than complacent. We would put the risk of a partial re-invasion of Ukraine as high as 50/50, albeit…
Highlights Remain neutral on the US dollar. A breakout of the dollar would cause a shift in strategy. Russia’s conflict with the West is heating up now that Germany has delayed the certification of the Nord Stream II pipeline. As long as the focus remains on the pipeline, the crisis will…