Russian equities and the ruble – which had been trying to stage a rally since late-January – plunged on Monday on the back of renewed fears that the situation in Ukraine is heading towards conflict. Investors are…
Executive Summary Russian Invasion Scenarios And Likely Equity Impact The Ukraine crisis is escalating as predicted. We maintain our odds: 65% limited incursion, 10% full-scale invasion, 25% diplomatic de-escalation.…
Natural gas prices on the Title Transfer Facility in the Netherlands are now significantly lower than the highs reached on December 21. The price of natgas has fallen 16% in just over a week. Similarly, USD/RUB is down 4.54% since…
Highlights Our top five “black swan” risks for 2022: Social unrest in China; Russian invasion of all of Ukraine; unilateral Israeli strikes on Iran; a cyber attack that goes kinetic; and a failure of OPEC 2.0. Too early…
Tensions between Russia and the West appear to be escalating. On Wednesday, US President Joe Biden stated that he believes that Russia “will move in” on Ukraine, suggesting that a partial re-invasion is likely. Biden…
Diplomatic efforts to defuse tensions over Ukraine failed last week. The US did not give in to Russian demands that Washington provides assurance that Ukraine does not join NATO and halts defense cooperation with Ukraine. High-…
US and Russian officials are in the midst of critical high-level negotiations aimed at defusing tensions over Ukraine. Talks on Monday between Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov and Deputy US Secretary of State Wendy…
Highlights A partial reinvasion of Ukraine cannot be ruled out. The constraints on Russia are not prohibitive, especially amid global energy shortages. On this issue, it is better to be alarmist than complacent. We would put the risk…
Highlights Remain neutral on the US dollar. A breakout of the dollar would cause a shift in strategy. Russia’s conflict with the West is heating up now that Germany has delayed the certification of the Nord Stream II pipeline.…