Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary EUR/JPY And The DXY: Unsustainable Gap  Three interrelated themes are likely to play out by the end of 2022 – peak Fed hawkishness,…

Executive Summary Loss Of Russian Production Will Lift Brent  With German imports of Russian oil close to 10% of its total requirements – following an impressive decline from 35% pre-invasion – we expect the EU to…

Executive Summary   The surge in food prices following Russia's invasion of Ukraine will drive EM headline inflation higher, given more of individuals' incomes in these economies are spent on food. Economies in the…

Special Report

Executive Summary The US Still Dominates Economic Output  While the Ukraine war has been positive for the greenback, there is a slow tectonic shift away from the dollar as China rethinks holding concentrated foreign currency…

Special Report

Executive Summary Europe's Largest Import Bill: Oil  The EU crossed the Rubicon this week, proposing to eliminate Russian oil imports within six months. The speed of putting the sanctions into effect, and Russia’s…

Executive Summary German GeoRisk Indicator  Russia and Germany have begun cutting off each other’s energy in a major escalation of strategic tensions. The odds of Finland and Sweden joining NATO have shot up. A halt…

Listen to a short summary of this report.         Executive Summary Small Caps Are Looking Attractive Relative To Their Large Cap Peers  Adverse supply shocks have pushed down global growth this year…

Special Report

Executive Summary The Declining Value Of An Old Friendship  India may buy cheap oil from Russia, but oil alone cannot expand this partnership. India needs to maintain a balance of power against China and Pakistan. With…

Executive Summary Brent Stable As Demand + Supply Fall  Oil demand growth will slow this year and next by 1.6mm b/d and 1mm b/d, respectively. These expectations are in line with sharp downgrades in World Bank and IMF…

Executive Summary Copper Will Remain Tight Even In Recession  Supply-chain disruptions arising from Russia's invasion of Ukraine and demand hits from lockdowns in Shanghai are increasing the odds of a global recession,…