The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold at 4.1% on Tuesday, surprising expectations of a 25bps increase. Governor Philip Lowe’s statement underscores that the decision “will provide further time…
The Global Manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 48.7 in July, indicating that the pace of decline steadied at the start of the third quarter. The details of the release show accelerating rates of decline in production, new…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, it is too early to conclude that the Fed can stop raising rates. Consumption and real income growth are highly correlated. If inflation continues to fall,…
In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted over the past week, we asked about our readers’ outlook for the US economy, regional equity allocation, and EUR/USD. On the outlook for the US economy, the majority of…
Last Friday, the Central Bank of Chile became the first major Latin American monetary authority to cut rates, thereby beginning the EM monetary easing cycle. In its latest meeting, board members decided to reduce the policy…
The Eurozone economy returned to expansion in the second quarter with real GDP rising by 0.3% q/q – beating expectations of 0.2% q/q. This follows an upwardly revised 0.0% in Q1 and a 0.1% contraction in Q4 2022. In…
BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service recently featured currency valuation models developed by our Foreign Exchange Strategy service. According to these models, the US dollar is extremely overvalued and thus vulnerable…
On Friday, the Bank of Japan announced an important tweak to its yield curve control (YCC) program. Although it maintained the 0.5% cap on 10-year bond yields, it indicated that it will manage the program with “greater…
Looking at the complete picture of GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment, it is understandable to assume the Fed is doing much better than it expected. GDP growth is tracking to exceed the Fed's forecast, while the outlook…
On the surface, US economic data delivered strong upside surprises on Thursday. The advance estimate of GDP growth shows economic activity accelerated from 2.0% to 2.4% in Q2 – surprising expectations of a slowdown to 1.8…