Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
BCA’s Monetary Indicator: Less Constructive Than Meets The Eye…
Shift Growth And Value Back To Neutral…
Demand-Driven Inflationary Pressures Remain Relatively Elevated…
Is The Easy Part Of The Disinflation Process Over…
Return Scenarios For Holding US Treasurys Are Asymmetrical…
Chinese Consumer And Producer Prices Are Deflating…
The Death Of T.I.N.A.: Income Edition…
China has generated 41 percent of the world’s economic growth through the past ten years, al-most double the 22 percent contribution from the US. Now that the Chinese growth engine is failing, we explain why it is arithmetically impossible for world growth to maintain the altitude of the past few decades. And we discuss an important investment implication.
The global economy will not enjoy an “immaculate disinflation” but will suffer a very maculate one due to China’s growth slowdown and restrictive monetary policy in the developed world. Investors should stay overweight low-beta assets.
Inflation Risk Not Yet Extinguished From The US Economy…