Labor markets are softening in most developed economies, as is usually the case in the lead-up to recessions. Our base case is that the global recession will begin in the second half of 2024, but we will be monitoring our MacroQuant…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the ECB is the central bank that poses the lowest risk of repeating the mistakes of the 1970s and letting inflation expectations unanchor. One reason is the ECB’s…
After surging in H2 2021/H1 2022, the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker has been on a general downtrend for over a year. The latest reading of 5.2% in October – albeit unchanged from September – is considerably…
China's CPI and PPI inflation release for October indicates that deflationary pressures continue to dominate the domestic economy. After remaining unchanged in September, consumer prices declined by 0.2% y/y last month,…
The economies of Canada and Australia share many similarities. Both nations are major commodity exporters, but with overvalued housing markets and highly indebted consumers. Lately, however, a notable gap has appeared…
US small-cap stocks have underperformed significantly this year. While the S&P 500 price index is up 14.0% year-to-date, the S&P 600 has lost 2.5%. However, this underperformance has not been a straight line down. Small…
The US disinflationary trend remains intact. The core PCE deflator continued its downtrend in September, falling to 3.7% y/y from a peak of 5.6% in February 2022. Alternative measures of underlying price pressures such as the…
As expected, Euro Area retail sales continued to decline on both a month-over-month and a year-over-year basis in September. The 0.3% m/m drop is slightly below expectations of -0.2% m/m while the 2.9% y/y decline is not as bad…
The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted the cash rate by 25 bps to a 12-year high of 4.35% on Tuesday, in line with consensus expectations. Governor Michele Bullock's post meeting statement underscored that although inflation is…
Chinese trade data for October delivered a mixed message on Tuesday. On the one hand, the export contraction deepened to -6.4% y/y following -6.2% y/y in September and surprised expectations that it would moderate to -3.5% y/y.…