The uptick in the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index to 102.0 pushed it above consensus estimates of 101.0 in November. Although this is a marginally positive signal, the prior month was revised down from 102.6 to…
According to our Global Investment Strategy (GIS) service, so far this year, inflation in the US has declined sharply even though employment growth has remained strong. There are many factors that have contributed to this…
While the S&P 500 has rallied by 18.8% so far this year, not all sectors and industries have gained on a year-to-date basis. Nearly half of the 11 sectors are in the red. This list, which is made up of Utilities (-11.7%),…
Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2024. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and…
According to BCA Research's Emerging Markets Strategy service, investors should focus on fluctuations in final demand rather than inventories. A common narrative endorsed by many market participants is that inventory…
The US nonfarm payroll report is an important monthly data release that investors scrutinize for updates on the state of the US labor market and economy more broadly. In the current context, the updates help gauge whether the US…
Our kinked Phillips curve framework predicted the immaculate disinflation of 2023. That same framework is now warning that the global economy is heading towards a recession in the second half of 2024.
European flash PMI estimates for November sent a slightly less pessimistic signal on Thursday. The Eurozone composite PMI climbed by 0.6 points to 47.1, beating expectations of a more muted increase to 46.8. Notably, both the…
Confidence is on the mend in the Euro Area. The rebounding ZEW growth expectations index reveals that investors are becoming more optimistic. The German IFO's business climate index inched higher in October for the first time…
US durable goods orders delivered a negative surprise on Wednesday. New orders for manufactured durable goods dropped by 5.4% m/m in October, below consensus estimates of a 3.2% m/m decline. Moreover, the September increase was…