Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
European Political Risk Is Turning Up Again…
Don't Bet On Preemptive Easing…
We rank the US spread sectors in terms of risk versus reward.
US LEI Continues To Contract…
On The Lookout For An Opportunity To Increase Duration Exposure…
US Health Care Will Outperform As The Economy Slows…
Democrats remain favored for reelection in 2024, which implies gridlock and policy status quo in 2025. That is not negative for stocks in the near term. However, economic, political, and geopolitical risks will escalate from here, causing volatility.
Sentiment Is Bullish Despite Concerns About Inflation…
Will Core Goods Prices Continue Declining…
Households have ramped up their cash holdings since the end of 2019, but the absence of an empirical link between cash and consumption leads us to believe that we’ve modestly overestimated the risk of consumer-driven overheating.