A few preliminary measures of German inflation for April were released on Monday. The month-on-month headline inflation measure came in at 0.5% an increase from last month’s reading of 0.4% but below expectations of 0.6%.…
Chinese industrial profit growth slowed in the first three months of the year to 4.3% YTD y/y, from 10.2% y/y in January and February. The March slowdown is meaningful since industrial profits outright contracted by 3.5% relative…
The latest edition of our Big Bank Beige Book suggests the expansion remains intact, though weakness in C’s private-label credit card portfolio could be a harbinger of distress among lower-income consumers. We remain tactically…
According to BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service, a hard landing is the only way to solve the UK inflation problem. Sticky inflation and lingering inflation pressures have made the BoE’s job much…
Equity markets reacted negatively to the preliminary Q1 US GDP on Thursday, with the S&P 500 shedding 0.5%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield rose 6 bps in response to the stronger-than-expected core PCE inflation print…
The advanced estimates for US real GDP suggest that economic growth slowed meaningfully from 3.4% in Q4 2023 to 1.6% in Q1 2024 on an annualized basis, significantly below expectations of 2.5%. That said, the details of the…
UK retail sales volumes were flat in March, a decrease from the 0.1% growth registered in February and disappointing expectations of a 0.3% m/m increase. The details were mixed, with automotive fuel and non-…
BCA’s US Beige Book Monitor – an indicator we use to gauge changes in the language of the Fed’s Beige Book report and which historically tracks US GDP growth – has improved in April. Nevertheless…
This year’s rise in commodity prices represents a blow-off rally rather than the start of a durable bull market. The global economy is heading for a recession. Stocks, commodities, and other risk assets are vulnerable.
The headline Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey for April delivered a positive surprise on Thursday, increasing from 3.2 to a twelve-month high of 15.5 and beating expectations it would soften to 2.0. Measures of demand…