Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
One Last Blow-Off Rally In Cyclicals Is Plausible…
A Soft Landing For The Labor Market Is Unlikely…
The signs of an approaching recession are starting to emerge. We will turn tactically defensive once they all fall into place.
There is a path to a soft landing, but it is a narrow one. We estimate that there is only a 20% chance that the US will avoid a recession before the end of 2025. We are currently neutral on global equities, but expect to downgrade stocks to underweight during the summer.
RBNZ: The Next Dove?
RBNZ…
Robust Capex Unlikely To Move The Needle On US Growth Outlook…
Will DM Ex-US And US Growth Recouple…
DM Manufacturing Activity Improves In May…
Most CEOs No Longer Expect A Recession In The Coming Year…
Wealth Effects Will Not Boost Consumption Meaningfully…