Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
Upward Revisions To GDP Forecasts Are Too Optimistic…
Base Effects Boost Chinese Industrial Profits In July…
Can Fed Rate Cuts Prevent A Recession…
Improved Consumer Confidence Hides Labor Market Pessimism In August…
Sweden Will Cut The Gordian Knot…
Ifo Expectations Augur Poorly For Eurozone Economy…
Market Breadth Remains Poor Despite Equal-weighted S&P 500’s Record High…
The great US labor market shortage is over. Labor demand will likely fall short of supply by the end of this year, causing unemployment to soar. Neither fiscal nor monetary policy will be able to prevent the coming recession. Investors should underweight stocks and overweight Treasuries.
In this Special Report, we assess the impact of monetary policy tightening on major economies. Interest rate sensitive GDP already slowed significantly in response to the aggressive rate hiking cycle. Despite the beginning of policy easing, our forward-looking indicators suggest monetary policy will continue to weigh on the economy.
Payrolls Get Largest Downward Revision Since 2009…