US nominal personal income growth accelerated from 0.2% m/m to 0.3% in July, faster-than-anticipated, whereas personal spending accelerated from 0.3% to 0.5%, in line with expectations. The savings rate edged lower from 3.1% to a…

  According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint Strategy service, the post-pandemic US economy has inverted from its usual ‘demand-constrained’ state to a highly unusual ‘supply-constrained’ state. This…

  China has notably diversified its export markets over the past two decades, reducing its dependence on the US and other DM economies and strengthening trade ties with EM nations. Since 2000, shipments to the US have halved (…

  US GDP was unexpectedly revised higher to 3.0% q/q annualized in Q2, from 2.8% previously estimated. A significant upward revision to consumer spending (2.9% from 2.3% against expectations of a downward revision) largely offset…

  Last week, economists polled by Bloomberg revised their consensus 2024 US GDP forecasts upwards, from 2.3% to 2.5%. Government spending and private investment were both revised 0.3 ppts higher to 3.0% and 3.9%, respectively,…

  US housing market data have been mixed. In June, the FHFA House Price index unexpectedly declined 0.1% m/m and the NAHB housing market index unexpectedly eased to 39 from a 41 reading. In July, starts and permits both…

  According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, Sweden, which acts as a bellwether for the global economy, will offer early insight into whether our base-case late 2024/early 2025 recession scenario will…

  The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence measure surprised to the upside in August, rising from 100.3 to 103.3, above expectations of 100.7. Consumers’ assessment of present economic conditions climbed 0.8 points to…

  During his Jackson Hole speech, Chair Powell dispelled any remaining doubts about a September rate cut. Still, easing monetary policy is unlikely to result in a soft landing. First, recessions have historically started shortly…