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Recession-Hard/Soft Landing

Our annual end-of-summer chartbook report traces the labor market deterioration that led us to downgrade equities at the beginning of August. It also highlights the soft-landing expectations that the credit and equity markets are discounting. We like the risk-reward profile of our newly defensive stance.

Savings Rate At 16-Year Low Casts Doubt On US Spending’s Sustainability…
Eurozone CPI At 3-Year Low Paves Way For September Cut…
Tokyo CPI Consistent With Further Policy Normalization…
Fade Chinese Banks’ Outperformance…

This Insight looks at potential dollar moves in the next six-to-twelve months.

Q2 US GDP Revised Upwards On Stronger Consumption…
China Will Export Deflation To EM…
How The US Could Cheat A GDP Recession…
Can Rate Cuts Save Housing, And The US Economy…