Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
Industrial Real Estate Repricing…
The bond market priced out a lot of recession risk after this morning’s employment report, and the 10-year Treasury yield has moved back into the Soft Landing Zone. We assess the data and consider whether we need to change our cyclical positioning.
Global Manufacturing PMI Contraction Worsens…
Fade The Real Estate Rally…
The Fed: This Ain’t ‘95…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for October 2024.
August Hires And Quits Presage Further Compensation Deceleration…
ISM Manufacturing PMI Extends Contraction Streak…
Easier Financial Conditions Won’t Prevent Labor Demand Deterioration…
After resisting the consensus narrative in 2022 that a US recession was imminent, and then predicting an immaculate disinflation for 2023, the Global Investment Strategy team has joined the dark side and is now expecting a recession to start in the US within the next six months. Accordingly, we recommend that investors underweight stocks and overweight government bonds.