Recession-Hard/Soft Landing

Dear Client, In lieu of next week’s regular report, we will be bringing you a Special Report featuring a no-holds-barred debate over the economic and financial market outlook among three of BCA’s more bullish strategists (Doug Peta, Rob Robis, and yours…

Highlights Chart 1Looks Like 2016 & 1998 Looks Like 2016 & 1998…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Business sector selling price inflation is sinking like a stone following the bond market’s melting inflation expectations, at a time when wage inflation continues to expand smartly. There are good odds that profit margins…

Highlights What did the Fed just do?: It cemented the tonal about-face it began signaling in March, pushing the start date of the next recession further out into the future. Why has the Fed pivoted so sharply?: It appears that the Fed has simply shifted…

Highlights U.S. consumption remains robust despite the recent intensification of global growth headwinds. The G-20 meeting will not result in an escalation nor a major resolution of Sino-U.S. tensions. Kicking the can down the road is the most likely…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Melting inflation expectations, widening relative indebtedness, expensive adjusted relative valuations, high odds of a further drop in relative profit margins and the high-octane small cap status all signal that large caps…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy The risk/reward tradeoff remains squarely to the downside and we are turning cyclically (3-12 month horizon) cautious on the prospects of the broad equity market. The Presidential cycle, UBER’s IPO, the SPX hitting all-time…

Crude oil price volatility surged over the past week, and likely will remain elevated. Underlying prices continue to reflect heightened policy risk ranging from continuing Sino – U.S. trade-war tensions; new tariff threats against Mexico from the Trump…

Highlights Inverted Curves & Recessions: While an inverted U.S. Treasury curve has been a reliable early indicator of past U.S. recessions, the current inversion appears “too soon” relative to the evolution of U.S. economic data today compared to past…

Highlights We’ve searched in vain for imminent domestic weakness in the U.S. economy, … : Much of our work this spring has focused on trying to poke holes in our view that the equilibrium fed funds rate remains above the target fed funds rate, but we…