Special Report

Highlights Global investors have come to accept the secular stagnation narrative as described by Larry Summers in November 2013, and have gravitated to the only available real time estimate of the real neutral rate of interest: the…

Highlights The global economy is in the midst of a painful recession. Monetary and fiscal authorities are responding forcefully to the crisis, but the lengths of the lockouts and quarantines remain a major source of downside risk…

Highlights Financial markets are in a state of upheaval, and no one knows where or when they’ll bottom: We reiterate that it’s too early to dive back into equities or spread product. The policy path is not nearly as clear…

Special Report

Dear Client, This week, I provided an update through a webcast on the economic and financial market outlook in the era of the COVID-19 outbreak. You can access the webcast here. In lieu of our regular report this week, we are sending…

Special Report

Highlights The global pandemic is quickening the decline in globalization. Democracies can manage the virus, but it will be painful. European integration just got a major boost from Germany’s fiscal turn. Stay long the German…

Highlights Policy Responses: The COVID-19 pandemic has become a full-blown global crisis and recession. Governments and central bankers worldwide are now responding with aggressive monetary easing and fiscal stimulus. Markets will not…

HighlightsPortfolio Strategy“There is blood in the streets”. Investors with higher risk tolerance should be buying into this weakness and start to deploy long-term oriented capital. S&P 500 futures fell to 2394 which is a whopping 1000…

Highlights The S&P 500 is in a bear market, and a recession appears to be inevitable, … : The longest bull market in S&P 500 history succumbed last week to the Saudi-Russia oil war, the relentless drumbeat of spreading…

Feature “People have been asking me whether this is the time to buy. My answer is more nuanced: it’s probably a time to buy.” Howard Marks, Oaktree Capital, Monthly Memo March 2020   Markets have moved…

Dear Client, In addition to this week’s report, BCA Research will hold webcasts over the coming days to discuss the economic and financial outlook amid the myriad of uncertainties gripping global markets. I will take part in a…