Highlights We now recommend that investors maintain a neutral stance towards stocks versus bonds in a global multi-asset portfolio. We also recommend that investors increase their allocation to government bonds within a global fixed…
Executive Summary There has never been a modern era recession or sharp slowdown in which the oil price did not collapse. In a recession, the massive destruction of oil demand always overwhelms a tight supply. Across the last six…
Executive Summary An Optimal Control Policy We could see some modest near-term downside in Treasury yields as inflation rolls over during the next few months, but we caution against turning overly bullish on bonds even if…
Executive Summary Russia Squeezes EU Natural Gas Major geopolitical shocks tend to coincide with bear markets, so the market is getting closer to pricing this year’s bad news. But investors are not out of the woods…
Executive Summary At our monthly view meeting on Monday, BCA strategists voted to change the House View to a neutral asset allocation stance on equities, with a slight plurality favoring an outright underweight. The…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Higher Real Yields Have Weighed On Equity Valuations I had the pleasure of visiting clients in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Abu Dhabi last week.…
Dear Client, Next Friday we will publish a Special Report on Gold in conjunction with our colleagues in BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange and Global Investment strategy groups. We will return to our regular schedule of…
In lieu of next week’s report, I will host a Webcast on Monday, June 27 to explain the recent market turmoil and how to navigate it through the second half of 2022. Please mark the date, and I do hope you can join. Executive…
Executive Summary Hiring is slowing and layoffs have begun to rise, but today's robust net increases in non-farm payrolls are inconsistent with an approaching recession. The demise of the American consumer has been greatly…