Recession-Hard/Soft Landing
Listen to a short summary of this report Executive Summary On the eve of the pandemic, most developed economies were operating at close to full capacity – the aggregate supply curve, in other words, had become very steep (or inelastic…
Next week, on September 7-8, is the BCA New York Conference, the first in-person version since 2019. I look forward to seeing many of you there, and if you haven’t already booked your place, you still can! (a virtual version is also available). As such, the…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Housing Activity Should Start To Stabilize By The End Of The Year
Housing Activity Should Start To Stabilize By The End Of…
Highlights The odds of a Goldilocks outcome for the US economy increased somewhat in August, but the risks of a US recession over the coming year remain quite elevated. We continue to recommend that investors stay neutrally positioned towards equities…
Executive Summary More Regional Divergences Within Our Global LEI
More Regional Divergences Within Our Global LEI…
Dear Client, This week, the US Bond Strategy service is hosting its Quarterly Webcast (August 16 at 10:00 AM EDT, 15:00 PM BST, 16:00 PM CEST). In addition, we are sending this Quarterly Chartpack that provides a recap of our key recommendations and some…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Significant Savings Provide A Moat Around Consumers
Significant Savings Provide A Moat Around Consumers…
Executive Summary Realized Real Interest Rates Must Rise
Realized Real Interest Rates Must Rise…
Executive Summary The constructive economic view that has us at odds with the consensus rests on three premises: excess pandemic savings will allow consumption to grow at trend, despite inflation; inflation will soon peak, moving to around 4% by year end…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The Euro And The Chinese Credit Impulse
The Euro And The Chinese Credit Impulse…