Highlights The odds of a Goldilocks outcome for the US economy increased somewhat in August, but the risks of a US recession over the coming year remain quite elevated. We continue to recommend that investors stay neutrally positioned…
Executive Summary More Regional Divergences Within Our Global LEI The BCA global leading economic indicator (LEI) is still in a downtrend, but its diffusion index – which tends to lead the overall global LEI at major…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Significant Savings Provide A Moat Around Consumers Three mega moats will protect the US economy over the next 12 months: 1) A high number of job…
Executive Summary Realized Real Interest Rates Must Rise Policymakers must continue engineering higher real interest rates, and tighter financial conditions, to help cool off growth and bring down overshooting inflation.…
Executive Summary The constructive economic view that has us at odds with the consensus rests on three premises: excess pandemic savings will allow consumption to grow at trend, despite inflation; inflation will soon peak, moving to…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The Euro And The Chinese Credit Impulse The US dollar has bounced off its 50-day moving average. In the recent past, that had led to a period…
Counterpoint’s August schedule: Next week, I am travelling to see clients in Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore, so we will send you a report on China’s 20th National Party Congress written by our Chief Geopolitical…
Executive Summary Biden Taps China-Bashing Consensus House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan reflects one of our emerging views in 2022: the Biden administration’s willingness to take foreign policy risks…
Executive Summary Government bond yields worldwide are falling due to fears of a global recession that will lead to monetary easing in 2023. This pricing is too optimistic with inflation likely to remain well above central bank targets…