Recession-Hard/Soft Landing

We update our 12-month return projections for different US fixed income sectors in soft-landing and recession scenarios.

The global political system is destabilizing and the US will turn more hawkish in foreign policy, trade policy, or both, regardless of the election outcome. Tactically go long the dollar.

Middle-aged households have lagged youngish and older households since the pandemic and the 40-to-54 cohort is worse off than it was at the end of 2019. The fragmenting of the seemingly monolithic US consumer widens the path to a recession and we reiterate our defensive asset allocation recommendations.