In Section I, we discuss why the rally in stock prices over the past month reflects the soft-landing view, and why that is not a likely economic outcome. US inflation is slowing, but target inflation remains elusive. Meanwhile,…
The dollar has entered a structural bear market. Although the greenback could get a temporary reprieve during the next recession, investors should position for a weaker dollar over the long haul.
A benign disinflation is probable during the remainder of 2023. Unfortunately, just when most people become convinced that a recession has been avoided, a recession will begin.
Through February and March, the number of US ‘job losers’ surged by almost half a million. Constituting the largest two-month increase in Americans who have lost their job since the depth of the pandemic. Unless we see a big drop in…
In this report, we present our performance review of the BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS) model bond portfolio for the Q1/2023, and the outlook and scenario analysis for the next six months. The portfolio slightly…
Bullish equity sentiment may persist in the second quarter on the Fed’s pause, but tight monetary policy, financial instability, elevated recession odds, extreme US polarization and policy uncertainty, and still-high geopolitical…
In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.
In Section I, we discuss the implications of the banking crisis that emerged in March. We do not expect what happened in the US or Europe to morph into a full-blown meltdown of the financial system, but this month’s events will…
It is a big mistake to think that rate cuts or lower bond yields will ease credit conditions. Quite the contrary. After an aggressive tightening of monetary policy, the first rate cuts always coincide with much tighter credit…