The Bank of England cut its policy rate in line with expectations to 4.75%, but it signaled a more gradual pace of cuts as it increased its inflation forecast following last week’s budget. A 25 bps cut with hawkish…
The October ISM Manufacturing missed expectations, decreasing to 46.5 from 47.2 in September. The Prices Paid component jumped, rising to 54.8 from 48.3 the month prior. New Orders showed a small upside surprise at 47.1, up 1…
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rebounded one point in October to 50.3. This was in line with the NBS PMIs from earlier this week, which also showed a modest rebound. We are looking for a turning point in China as the…
The October US jobs report had mixed signals and was skewed by hurricanes and industrial strikes. Unemployment met expectations by staying unchanged at 4.1%, although it rose nearly 0.1 percentage point on an unrounded basis.…
A reaction to this morning’s employment report and a preview of the potential bond market implications of next week’s US election and FOMC meeting.
Can Powell achieve a soft landing? There are some indications he is doing it. We examine why our negative stance was wrong and analyze the four growth engines that kept recession at bay. Half of these forces remain while the other…
The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, core PCE, met expectations of a reacceleration to 0.3% month-on-month, and reached 2.7% year-over-year. The rest of the Personal Income and Outlays report showed solid…
We recently pointed to the UK Budget announcement as a pivotal event for UK assets. Following an initially positive reception, the market has turned and priced in further fiscal premia in UK assets, with both gilts and the pound…
We update our 12-month return projections for different US fixed income sectors in soft-landing and recession scenarios.