Investors should be tactically tilting allocations towards Direct Lending, Distressed Debt, and Directional Hedge Fund strategies at the expense of Real Estate, Private Equity, and Diversifier Hedge Funds. Structural opportunities…
Disinflation coupled with sticky wage growth is likely to result in either a second wave of inflation or layoffs and a recession. In the meantime, market expectations for sales, growth, and margins are overly optimistic and are…
The statement from last week’s Central Economic Work Conference indicates that Chinese authorities are still not considering large-scale stimulus in 2024. Odds are that a full-fledged business cycle recovery in 2024 is unlikely.…
Recent data releases have painted a mixed picture of US housing market dynamics. On the one hand, housing starts and building permits unexpectedly increased on a month-on-month basis in October. After falling in 2022, housing…
The Atlanta Fed's Home Ownership Affordability Monitor (HOAM) – which gauges a median-income households' ability to absorb annual costs related to owning a median-priced home – dropped to a fresh record low in…
Earlier this year we highlighted that China's property market dynamics pose a greater risk to the price of steel vis-à-vis copper. This view was based on the expectation that Chinese policymakers will direct financing…
Q3-2023 is expected to mark the end of the earnings recession for the past three quarters, opening the door to positive earnings growth. Whether that would be sustainable or will sputter once the recession settles in as expected in…
As global financial institutions like the IMF draw attention to the real-estate crisis in China, the CCP will be forced to step up regulatory and restructuring efforts to contain its spread and limit further contagion domestically…
In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.
After a steady rebound in the first half of the year, the US NAHB Housing Market Index’s 5-point decline to 45 in September was a disappointment to consensus estimates of a 1-point decrease. It marks the second consecutive…