Real Estate
Hillary Clinton has a 65% chance of winning the election; she receives 334 electoral college votes according to our model. Trump still requires an exogenous shock to win. Meanwhile, the USD is poised to rally - and leftward-moving policymakers will applaud its redistributive effects while MNCs suffer the consequences.
It's hard to make a case for attractive returns from any asset class over the next year. We dial down risk a bit but ending our overweight on junk bonds. Investors should pick up yield where they can but without taking excessive risk.
Although the Fed is on track to hike rates in December, the credit cycle is far more advanced than the monetary tightening cycle. Position for a December rate hike by being short duration and in curve flatteners. Weakening corporate balance sheet fundamentals mean the long-term trend is for corporate spreads to widen.
Are negative yields on $10 trillion of global bonds a sure sign of a bubble? The answer is no... and yes.
While we expect both direct and indirect exposure to generate solid risk-adjusted returns, favor direct given its overall portfolio impact, lower correlation to financial assets and better inflation protection.
Hong Kong's growing political awareness and rising sensitivity to public policy underscores brewing social tensions brought about by decades of <i>Laissez-Faire</i> capitalism. Social policies will likely become progressively more redistributive, with potentially a longer-term negative impact on asset prices.
A common perception is that the euro has been a failure for Italy. We challenge this perception and explain why it is so important for investors, whether it is wrong or right.
Commercial real estate and REITs have benefited greatly from accommodative monetary policy. Though they are approaching a peak, our analysis shows that they remain in a "goldilocks" scenario and still offer plenty of upside.
A collection of 10 important charts to monitor closely through the summer months.