Precious Metals
Our strategic and tactical trades were up an average 24.6% in 2016Q2, led by strategic energy recommendations. Going forward, we continue to favor energy exposure over base and precious metals, ags and softs.
Post-Brexit uncertainty will continue for some time. But we were already cautiously positioned, and would not go any more defensive.
Even if commodity markets are not yet pricing a higher probability of fiscal stimulus following the U.K.'s Brexit vote, we believe they will begin doing so in very short order.
Global oil demand will continue to surprise to the upside over the balance of the year - growing at a rate of 1.6 MMb/d - following an unexpected surge over the first five months of 2016.
Increasing uncertainty over the Brexit vote will keep the Fed from raising its overnight policy rate at this week's FOMC meeting, but it may not keep the USD from rallying in the event of a decisive win for Brexit advocates on June 23.
China's 4.7 trillion RMB (~ $720 billion) fiscal stimulus program will be more bullish for base metals, particularly copper, than we initially surmised.
All three of Trump's signature policy proposals - increased deficit-financed infrastructure spending, a more restrictive immigration policy, and trade protectionism - are dollar bullish. These policies could cause the U.S. economy to overheat, forcing the Fed to raise real rates more than it otherwise would. Equities could rally in the near term following a Trump victory, but are likely to face stiff longer-term headwinds. Treasurys would still suffer modest losses, while, ironically, the one asset that could suffer the most from a Trump victory is gold.
While the Fed's recent forward guidance leading markets to increase the odds of a policy-rate hike earlier than previously expected will restrain the recovery in crude oil prices, fundamentals will dominate price formation now that markets have rebalanced.