Highlights Bond Bear Market: TIPS breakeven inflation rates are still below target, and this gives us high conviction that Treasury yields will increase on a cyclical horizon. If we assume that the equilibrium fed funds rate is…
Highlights We re-examine our Yield and Protector portfolios to find out which assets will hold up best if there is a material correction. Our tactical view on gold is neutral, but the risk in gold prices will remain skewed to the…
Highlights As the Fed proceeds with its policy tightening this year, higher real rates and a stronger USD will weigh on silver and platinum prices, and, to a lesser extent, palladium prices. Offsetting these downward pressures, silver,…
Highlights Even though our baseline scenario calls for four rate hikes out of the Fed this year - more than markets have priced in - gold will be supported by increasing inflation and inflation expectations, heightened geopolitical risks…
Dear Client, This is our last report of 2017. We will be back on January 4, 2018, with our customary recap of recommendations made this year. We wish you and your loved ones the very best this lovely season has to offer. Sincerely,…
In late-August we initiated a liquidity-to-growth handoff levered market-neutral trade: long S&P energy/short global gold miners. Over the past four months this trade is up 18.3% and we think the easy money has already been made…
Highlights Portfolio Strategy The easy money has already been made in the liquidity-to-growth theme-levered long S&P energy/short global gold miners pair trade. Lock in profits and move to the sidelines, for now. Similarly, book…
Recommended Allocation Highlights We are late cycle. Strong growth could turn in 2018 from a positive for risk assets into a negative. More risk-averse investors may thus want to turn cautious. But the last year of a bull run…
Highlights The three deflationary anchors of the global economy have abated: The U.S. private sector deleveraging is over, the euro area economy is escaping its post crisis hangover, and the destruction of excess capacity in China is…
Highlights Looking into 2018, the major risk factors driving gold - inflation and inflation expectations; fiscal and monetary policy; and geopolitics - will, on balance, continue to favor gold as a strategic portfolio hedge. We expect…