Precious Metals

Just as it appeared the slowdown in global industrial activity had run its course, commodity markets face another test of demand resiliency brought on by exogenous political shocks (Chart Of The Week). As luck would have it, these shocks – arriving in the form of an unexpected escalation of…

The long global gold miners/short S&P oil & gas exploration & production pair trade hit our recently augmented trailing stop intraday yesterday, and we obeyed this stop and locked in gains of 12% since its July 15th inception. As a reminder, we have been increasingly using risk…

Highlights From time immemorial, gold has been a medium of exchange, a store of value, and a safe haven to hedge portfolios. In modern times, the market in which it trades has evolved into an important filter of information and expectations re monetary policy, inflation expectations, and…

Housekeeping…

Dear Clients, In addition to this Weekly Report, you will also be getting a Special Report authored by some of our top strategists on global growth. The manufacturing recession that began in early 2018 has lasted longer than most expected. The risk is that this is an additional end-of-cycle…

Add Shiny Metal Exposure…

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Recession odds continue to tick higher, according to the NY Fed’s probability of recession model, at a time when global growth is waning, U.S. profit growth is contracting and the non-financial ex-tech corporate balance sheet is degrading rapidly. On a cyclical 3-…

Highlights The breakout in financial asset prices stands at odds with a deteriorating profit outlook. This suggests a high probability of a coiled-spring reversal in one of the two variables as we enter the thin summer trading months. We are maintaining a pro-cyclical currency stance, but are…