We highlighted in a recent Insight that positive economic surprises are prompting economists to revise up their US economic growth expectations. The Goldilocks narrative is supporting the rally in risk assets. However, results of…
The US CPI report for January showed inflation did not cool as much as anticipated. Headline inflation accelerated from 0.23% to 0.31% on a month-over-month basis, higher than anticipations of 0.2% m/m. It fell from 3.4% to 3.1%…
The Chinese economy continues to face deflationary pressures, reducing the odds that any intervention-driven rebound in equities will be sustained. In addition, our Geopolitical strategists have argued that US-China relations…
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service’s revised forecast is centered on a recession starting in late 2024 or early 2025. The strong pace of US growth has continued into early 2024. Preliminary estimates…
Our Emerging Markets team believes that the risk-reward profile of the US dollar remains very attractive. First, if US growth stays robust, US interest rate expectations will rise because rate cuts priced in will not be…
The latest Canadian data suggest that although demand is cooling down, the Canadian economy is not in freefall. The unemployment rate fell for the first time since December 2022, declining by 0.1 percentage points to 5.7%,…
China’s credit data update for January delivered a mixed signal on Friday. The CNY 6.50 trillion increase in aggregate financing beat expectations of CNY 5.60 trillion and marked a significant acceleration from CNY 1.94…
Chinese A-shares will probably begin forming a volatile bottom. The basis is that authorities will likely throw the kitchen sink at the onshore market in an attempt to stabilize share prices. The same is not true for offshore listed…
This week’s report explores factors behind the recent rise in the dollar, and whether this could continue in the next month.