Although we ticked a second box on our checklist, the incoming data still do not indicate that a recession is imminent. We remain tactically equal weight equities with a strong bias to underweight them, but we’re not exiting the…
The Labour Party won the UK election, just as BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service predicted back in 2022. However, this win is unlikely to rock the proverbial geopolitical boat. Popular enthusiasm for Sir Keir…
The latest release of the Canadian Labour Force Survey indicated further softening of the labor market in the Great White North. The economy experienced a net loss in total employment, shedding 1,400 jobs compared to market…
In this week's report, we review the impact of political developments, as well as incoming fundamental data, on our positioning.
Our labor market indicators have softened meaningfully during the past month but aren’t yet signaling an imminent recession. That said, the Fed can no longer ignore the labor market with the unemployment rate above 4% and rising.
The new Labour government will have flexibility to respond to macro shocks, which is positive for the UK in general, namely GBP-EUR, and also gilts in absolute terms. But over the long run, tax hikes will likely surprise to the…
Eurozone headline inflation slowed from 2.6% y/y to 2.5% in June. Germany, its largest economy, saw price pressures ease from 2.4% to 2.2%, below expectations of 2.3% (or from 2.8% to 2.5% on an EU-Harmonized basis). However,…
The US conventional 30-year mortgage rate climbed back above 7% in late June and drove a 2.6% weekly contraction in mortgage applications. The fixed-rate home affordability index sank to a nearly four-decade low. Housing is…