Policy

As Trump’s victory odds rise, the underperformance of European equities deepens. How negative would a global trade war be for European assets?

It’s status quo for the SIFI banks, as they don’t see consumer credit performance materially worsening from now-normalized levels and they are not meaningfully exposed to commercial real estate losses.

We review some of the key data releases this week that we find have an impact on our currency strategy. Long yen positions make sense today. Long sterling and the euro bets are more of a judgment call, and we will fade any strength in these currencies. This report delves into these nuances, and suggests a few trade ideas.

Investors should overweight US assets and de-risk their portfolios in anticipation of a major increase in policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk surrounding the US election and its global ramifications.

Don't buy the dip. The equity bull market is over. The US will enter a recession in late 2024 or in early 2025.