The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence measure surprised to the upside in August, rising from 100.3 to 103.3, above expectations of 100.7. Consumers’ assessment of present economic conditions climbed 0.8 points to…
During his Jackson Hole speech, Chair Powell dispelled any remaining doubts about a September rate cut. Still, easing monetary policy is unlikely to result in a soft landing. First, recessions have historically started shortly…
Chinese industrial profits rose by 4.1% y/y (3.6% YTD y/y) in July, from 3.6% (3.5%) in June. Upstream mining industries’ profits contracted 9.5% from January to July 2024, whereas downstream manufacturing sectors’…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, in the final months of an election cycle, equities underperform relative to non-election years. This extends further into Q1 of the following year due to…
The equal-weighted S&P 500 index reached a new all-time high of 7,096.12 on Monday. Chair Powell’s comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week dispelled any remaining doubt about a September rate cut and sent…
The great US labor market shortage is over. Labor demand will likely fall short of supply by the end of this year, causing unemployment to soar. Neither fiscal nor monetary policy will be able to prevent the coming recession.…
UK GDP growth accelerated to 0.6% in the second quarter, and the latest PMI data underscores contrasts with its DM counterparts (see The Numbers). Several tailwinds are supporting the UK economy. Two-year Gilt yields have…