Policy
Yesterday, the ECB solidified its recent dovish tilt in response to weaker growth and decreasing inflationary pressures. It is now set to cut rates 25bps each meeting. How low will the ECB deposit rate ultimately go and what does this imply for yields and the euro?
The ECB cut interest rates by 25 bps for the third time this year, lowering the deposit facility rate from 3.5% to 3.25%. While the ECB is avoiding explicitly committing to a path for policy, President Lagarde’s repeated statement that the disinflationary…
Banks reported an increase in loan demand from both firms and households in the European Central Bank’s Bank Lending Survey, marking the first rise since 2022. This demand increase occurred as lending standards for firms remained roughly unchanged after two…
Third-quarter earnings season has started last week for banks, with most major banks reporting earnings above expectations so far. Our US Investment strategists routinely analyze the big banks' earnings calls to gauge their views on the strength of…
Recent positive US economic surprises drove cross-asset pricing, pushing both equities and Treasury yields higher. What do these yield levels mean for the Treasury market, and what path can we expect looking forward? Our US Bond strategists believe the…
After improving throughout the summer, the October release of the first monthly regional Fed manufacturing survey sent a negative signal about US manufacturing activity. General business conditions from the Empire State Manufacturing survey fell 23 points…
Canadian headline inflation rose 1.6% year-over-year in September, lower than the expected 1.8% and down from 2.0% in August. This was also its slowest pace since February 2021. The decrease was mainly driven by gasoline prices, leaving the core (ex. food and…
Economic expectations for the both Germany and the Eurozone ticked up in October and surprised positively for the first time since they collapsed this summer. The assessment of current conditions however worsened, going from -84.5 to -86.9. The expectations…
The UK August employment report was in line with recent data showing an economy humming at a decent pace. The unemployment rate decreased 0.1pp to 4% after peaking at 4.4% before the summer. The BoE will look kindly to the continued deceleration in wage…
Our China and Emerging Market strategy teams analyzed this weekend press conference by the China’s Ministry of Finance (MoF), that provided additional details on the recently announced fiscal stimulus plan. Our colleagues view the recent announcement as…