Highlights US Treasuries: The uptrend in US Treasury yields has more room to run. However, the primary driver is starting to shift from increased inflation expectations to higher real yields amid greater confidence on the cyclical US…
Highlights Health care remains a top priority of the Democratic Party even though it is flying under the radar at the moment. Health care embodies the shift from small government to big government. While the 2021 budget reconciliation…
Highlights This week, we present the second edition of the BCA Research Global Fixed Income Strategy (GFIS) Global Credit Conditions Chartbook—a review of central bank surveys of bank lending standards and loan demand. Feature…
Highlights The amount of fiscal stimulus in the pipeline is more than enough to close the US output gap. Inflation is likely to surprise on the upside this year. The Fed will brush off any evidence of economic overheating during the…
Highlights The Biden administration’s budget reconciliation bill will close the output gap, so markets will have to start thinking about upcoming tax hikes, rising wages, and eventual Fed interest rate hikes. Biden’s lax…
Highlights Duration: Long-maturity Treasury yields are closing in on our intermediate-term targets. On balance, cyclical and valuation indicators continue to support an outlook for higher yields, but a few are sending warning signs…
Highlights For the month of February, our trading model recommends shorting the US dollar versus the euro and Swiss franc. While we agree a barbell strategy makes sense, we would rather hold the yen and the Scandinavian currencies.…
Highlights Chart 1China's PMIs Dropped In January January’s official PMI suggests that China’s economic recovery started the year on a weaker note. While both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs remain in…
Highlights Chart 1Inflation Indicators Hook Up There’s no doubt that inflationary pressures are building in the US economy. The latest piece of evidence is January’s ISM Manufacturing PMI which saw the Prices Paid…