Dear Client, Dhaval Joshi has started publishing the new BCA Research Counterpoint product, in which he will continue to apply his unique process to dig up original investment opportunities around the globe. I trust many of you will…
Highlights The latest “dot plot” from the Fed reaffirmed the FOMC’s intention to keep rates near zero for at least the next two years, despite evidence that the US economy will recover from the pandemic much faster…
Dear client, Next week, in lieu of our weekly report, I will be hosting a webcast on Thursday, March 25 at 10:00 am EDT and Friday March 26 at 9:00 am HKT. I look forward to your comments and questions during the webcast. Best regards…
Highlights The Federal Reserve’s ultra-dovish stance is not the only reason for markets to cheer. The US is booming, China is unlikely to overtighten monetary and fiscal policy, and Europe remains a source of positive political…
Highlights We are lowering our expectation for oil-demand growth this year, bringing it more in line with levels expected by OPEC, the IEA and EIA. Our GDP-driven demand estimates have proven too bullish for 1Q21, considering the…
Highlights The American Rescue Plan Act confirms the shift to “Big Government” and proactive fiscal policy in US politics. This sea change in policy is durable for now, given that Democrats can pass one or two more budget…
US Treasurys sold off on Wednesday morning, with the 10-year Treasury yield making a new intraday pandemic high and the 2/10 yield curve steepening ahead of the conclusion of the Fed meeting. The subsequent Fed message soothed…
Highlights The report from last week’s National People’s Congress (NPC) indicates a gradual pullback in policy support this year. Fiscal thrust will be neutral in 2021, whereas the rate of credit expansion will be slightly…
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service concludes that the Fed will revise up its interest rate forecasts at Wednesday’s meeting; nonetheless, the new forecasts will remain more dovish than the current market pricing…
Highlights Duration: The Fed will revise up its interest rate forecasts at this week’s meeting, but the new forecasts will remain dovish compared to current market pricing. This could pressure bond yields down in the near-term.…