Executive Summary Global Oil Price Pushes Up Inflation Expectations  The US cut off of Russian energy exports has limited immediate impact because EU trade with Russia continues. Russia is unlikely to embargo the EU as it…

Executive Summary The Fed is in a tough spot. On the one hand, rising long-dated inflation expectations will incentivize it to tighten more quickly. On the other hand, the flat yield curve and poor risky asset performance point to a…

Special Report

Dear client, This week we are sending you a joint Special Report with my colleague Chester Ntonifor, Foreign Exchange Strategist. The Special Report provides our outlook on the RMB. I trust that you will find the report very insightful.…

Special Report

Executive Summary The RMB And Real Interest Rates  The RMB has overshot and will likely consolidate gains in the coming months. That said, the yuan remains underpinned by a current account surplus, positive real rates, and a…

Special Report

Executive Summary Failure Of Iran Deal Tightens Oil Supply  The US and Iran suspended their attempt to negotiate a nuclear deal on March 11. Countries often get cold feet before major agreements but there are good reasons to…

Executive Summary The RMB And Real Interest Rates  The RMB has overshot and will likely consolidate gains in the coming months. The said, the yuan remains underpinned by a current account surplus, positive real rates, and a…

Executive Summary On a tactical (3-month) horizon, the inflationary impulse from soaring energy and food prices combined with the choke on growth from sanctions will weigh on both the global economy and the global stock market. As…

Executive Summary Will The War Stall The Expected Downturn In Inflation This Year?  The Russia/Ukraine conflict is impacting financial markets across numerous channels – uncertainty, risk aversion, growth expectations…

Executive Summary Nuclear Worries Take Center Stage  Vladimir Putin has now committed himself to orchestrating a regime change in Kyiv. Anything less would be seen as a defeat for him. Assuming he succeeds, and it is far…