Executive Summary In this first of a regular series of ‘no holds barred’ conversations with a concerned client we tackle the hot topic of inflation. Month-on-month US core inflation has already peaked, 12-month US core…
Executive Summary A Good Time For A Pause In The Bond Bear Market The global government bond selloff looks stretched from a technical perspective, and a consolidation phase is likely over the next few months as global…
Executive Summary Above Fair Value March’s CPI report will mark peak inflation for 2022. We recommend several ideas to profit from peak inflation. First, investors should keep portfolio duration close to benchmark.…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary The Currency And Interest Rates: On A Collision Course? The dip in the Swedish krona has priced in a recession in the domestic economy. If a…
Executive Summary The unemployment rate in the US stands at 3.6%, 0.4 percentage points below the FOMC’s estimate of full employment. Historically, the Fed’s efforts to nudge up the unemployment rate have failed: The US…
Executive Summary Macron Still Favored, But Le Pen Cannot Be Ruled Out Macron is still favored to win the French election but Le Pen’s odds are 45%. Le Pen would halt France’s neoliberal structural reforms,…
Executive Summary The structural downtrend in Chinese bond yields has a lot further to go, because it is helping to let the air out gently of stratospheric valuations in the real estate sector, and thereby preventing a hard landing for…
Executive Summary Fed officials maintained the drumbeat of hawkish commentary last week, reiterating their commitment to use the full might of their tools to bring inflation to heel. Stock and bond markets reacted adversely when…
Executive Summary The Dollar Has Broken Above Overhead Resistance Most central banks continue to dial up their hawkish rhetoric, led by the Fed. This is putting upward pressure on the dollar (Feature Chart). The big…