Executive Summary Stocks Not Linked To Presidential Approval President Kennedy’s performance in 1962 would be ideal for the Biden administration in this year’s midterm elections – but today the…
Executive Summary A True Bond Bear Market, USD-Hedged Or Unhedged The US dollar has appreciated in 2022, most notably against the euro and Japanese yen. The rally has been more muted against the currencies of major US…
Highlights Chart 1Past Peak Inflation The Fed is all set to deliver a 50 basis point rate hike when it meets this week and with inflation still well above target Chair Powell will be keen to re-affirm the Fed’s…
Executive Summary German GeoRisk Indicator Russia and Germany have begun cutting off each other’s energy in a major escalation of strategic tensions. The odds of Finland and Sweden joining NATO have shot up. A halt…
Executive Summary Using the real yield on inflation protected bonds as a gauge of the long-term real interest rate is possibly the biggest mistake in finance. The ultra-low real yield on inflation protected bonds captures nothing more…
Executive Summary Allies Still Have Faith In USD The Biden administration’s use of sanctions has prompted market speculation about the longevity of the dollar. Yet the DXY has hit 100 and could break out, in the…
Executive Summary Summarizing Our Main Investment Themes In One Chart Our current strategic recommendations are centered around four key themes: global inflation will slow over the rest of 2022, Europe remains too weak to…
Executive Summary A housing slowdown has begun and it will proceed in three stages. First, rising mortgage rates will lead to slowing demand. Second, weak demand will push inventories higher and cause home prices to decelerate.…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Executive Summary Small Caps Are Looking Attractive Relative To Their Large Cap Peers Adverse supply shocks have pushed down global growth this year…
Listen to a short summary of this report. Dear Client, In lieu of our weekly report next week, I will be hosting a webcast on Tuesday with my colleague Mathieu Savary, Chief European Strategist, on the implications of…