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Next week, on September 7-8, is the BCA New York Conference, the first in-person version since 2019. I look forward to seeing many of you there, and if you haven’t already booked your place, you still can! (a virtual version is also…
Dear Clients, Next week we will attend the BCA Investment Conference in New York. Therefore we will not publish our regular report. We will resume regular publication in the week of September 12. We apologize in advance for any…
Executive Summary Low-Yielding Countries Facing High USD Hedging Costs  The US dollar will remain strong alongside continued Fed rate hikes. Interest rate differentials will remain positive for the greenback, alongside other…
Executive Summary   Reshoring And FDI Job Creation Have Accelerated After The Pandemic  The US is entering a period of an industrial boom thanks to limited manufacturing capacity paired with strong demand for…
Executive Summary   Surging Electricity, Gas Prices Will Fuel Higher Inflation  Heat waves in the Northern Hemisphere are sending electricity and natgas prices through the roof, which will feed into higher inflation…
Special Report Highlights The risk of a US recession has increased sharply over the past several months. We have not yet concluded that a recession over the coming year is inevitable, but substantial (further) supply-side and pandemic-related…
Highlights The odds of a Goldilocks outcome for the US economy increased somewhat in August, but the risks of a US recession over the coming year remain quite elevated. We continue to recommend that investors stay neutrally positioned…
Executive Summary US Companies Will Attempt To Raise Selling Prices To Protect Their Profit Margins  China needs lower interest rates and a weaker currency to battle deflationary pressures. In the US, the main problem is…
Executive Summary Upgrade Euro Area ILBs To Overweight  Inflation breakevens have stabilized in the US, where gasoline prices have fallen, but have reaccelerated in the UK and euro area, where natural gas prices have…
Listen to a short summary of this report.     Executive Summary Euro Bulls Are Evaporating  The euro is likely to undershoot in the near term, as the winter months approach and economic volatility in Europe…