The February US CPI came in cooler than expected. Headline inflation decelerated to 0.2% m/m (2.8% y/y), as did core which now stands at 3.1% y/y. Core services inflation declined while core goods inflation was roughly unchanged.…
A falling stock market and sticky bond yields represent the worst of both worlds for investors. We interrogate why bond yields haven’t dropped more given the large selloff seen in equities.
After affirming he does not look at the stock market, President Trump said he cannot exclude the possibility of a recession as he rushes to implement his agenda before the 2026 midterms. Could a President willingly start a recession…
Our China and Emerging Markets strategists assessed China’s outlook after the National People’s Congress concluded last week. China’s latest fiscal stimulus is only marginally larger than last year’s, with a combined credit and…
China’s February consumer prices fell 0.7% y/y after expanding on an annual basis in January. Producer price deflation stood at -2.2% y/y, roughly unchanged from a month prior. China’s first quarter data is heavily influenced by…
Our Emerging Markets strategists assessed Colombian assets after a significant rally. Colombia faces deep-rooted macroeconomic challenges that will not be easily reversed by a right-wing government in 2026. Public debt is on an…
The February US jobs report was slightly weaker than expected, reflecting a slowing but still healthy labor market. At 151k, payrolls missed estimates. January’s number was revised down from 143k to 125k, bringing the 3-month moving…
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Robert Timper, strategist in our Global Fixed Income strategy team. Robert digs into Eurozone employment dynamics. January data showed that unemployment remains at record lows, but regional…
The fiscal stimulus announced at this year’s National People’s Congress is only slightly larger than last year’s. Notably, the details of the measures suggest that it will be challenging for fiscal stimulus to effectively…
This morning’s employment report showed solid job growth, but recent consumer spending indicators are more concerning. The risk of recession starting within the next few months has increased. We suggest some important indicators for…