Policy
In this Special Report, GeoMacro Strategist Marko Papic argues that the Trump administration is flirting with high risk / low reward. Triggering a recession may be the end goal of the White House, but borrowing costs are not declining as much as they ought to be while President Trump’s political capital is on thin ice. Most recessions are caused by a “murder weapon.” It is rare that this weapon can be holstered. This may be one of those times.
The market reaction to this afternoon’s Fed meeting looks overdone. Investors could be in for a hawkish surprise when it becomes apparent that the Fed won’t ease policy into higher tariff-driven inflation prints.
Trump’s foreign policy can be explained by rational US interests, but it requires settling the trade war with allies sooner rather than later. Book gains on EUR-USD for now.
