Yen bulls need patience. The near-term narrative remains bearish on the back of interest-rate differentials. Longer term, it is the most attractive currency the G10, on valuation grounds.
In Section I, we discuss why the rally in stock prices over the past month reflects the soft-landing view, and why that is not a likely economic outcome. US inflation is slowing, but target inflation remains elusive. Meanwhile,…
First Republic Bank’s earnings report showed how its struggles have exaggerated the perception of other banks’ distress. Ex-FRC, the banking system appears to be coping with the post-Silicon Valley Bank turmoil pretty well.
Inflation is hot, but inflation expectations are not. We explain the answer to this apparent puzzle and discuss the investment implications. Plus we identify two commodities that are at imminent risk of reversal.
The latest round of earnings calls from the systemically important banks was encouraging on balance. Households are still flush and still spending and consumer and business delinquencies remain remarkably low. Though a recession is…
We are increasing our gold price target to $2,200/oz, given the increasing risk of fiscal dominance in the US, rising geopolitical risk, the return of trading blocs and currency debasement risk. These risks also will increase…
China's recovery will be driven by consumer spending in general and on services in particular, while industrial sectors will disappoint.