This report looks at the FX implications of the Trump tariffs, and the review of our Q1 trades.
The March employment report showed strong job growth, but the labor market remains in a fragile state and the demand shock from tariffs could be the catalyst that tips it over the edge into recession.
Our GeoMacro strategists recommend positioning for an exodus out of US assets, with long exposure to gold, the yen, and the Canadian dollar. April 2, “Liberation Day,” is likely to mark the peak in de-globalization hysteria, as the…
The March ISM Services report sent a recessionary signal, supporting our defensive positioning. The headline index fell sharply to 50.8 from 53.5, missing expectations. New orders dropped to 50.2, while employment collapsed to 46.2…
Trump's Tariff D-Day brings a negative surprise to financial markets already anxious over a declining US cyclical economy. Investors should sell risky assets, increase safe havens, and overweight US assets in the near term.
Markets had a risk-off reaction to the Trump administration’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs, reinforcing the case for defensive portfolio positioning. The proposal includes a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, a 25% tariff on…
April 2 may mark peak trade tensions, but the path forward remains highly uncertain, supporting our underweight on risk assets and industrial commodities. The USTR’s long-awaited report on trade barriers will guide the next phase of…
With economic headwinds building and fiscal dynamics shifting, bond markets are at a turning point. Our latest note outlines why German bund yields are set to decline and why UK gilts are poised to outperform — and how to position…
This report looks at investment implications, for Norwegian assets, given the recent meeting, from the Norges Bank.
Markets may be bracing for April 2, but the real surprise could be how unsurprising it ends up being. Our Chart Of The Week comes from GeoMacro Chief Strategist Marko Papic, who sees the looming tariff salvo as the peak of de-…