According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, German yields are unlikely to experience a decisive break out that would carry them to 3%. Five economic forces suggest that German yields are unlikely to…
In an Insight last month, we noted that the Global Investment Strategy service increased its subjective odds for the resurgence of US inflation later this year or early next year from 20% to 30%. Here are some of the data points…
Chinese banks surprised markets with a more modest-than-anticipated rate cut on Monday. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was reduced by 10 basis points to 3.45% – slightly above expectations of a bigger cut to 3.40%.…
German producer prices indicate that inflationary pressures continue to moderate. The producer price index’s 6.0% y/y drop in July is more pronounced than the anticipated 5.1% y/y decline and marks the first annual decrease…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Investment Strategy services, most indications of Japanese inflation are pointing to upside surprises. This will boost interest-rate differentials in…
Despite the underwhelming economic recovery, Chinese authorities remain reluctant to open wide stimulus taps as much as they have in past economic downturns. This is corroborated by the PBoC’s marginal interest rate cut…
Before doctors prescribe treatments to a patient, they first make a diagnosis. The success of the treatment is contingent upon the accuracy of the diagnosis. The same is true for a country’s economy. Many commentators…
The chief question of the 2024 election is whether US anti-establishment or populist politics is a viable electoral strategy, according to BCA’s US Political Strategy. That will have domestic and global effects not only in…
While the bearish bond trade currently has a lot of momentum, we continue to think that Treasury yields are close to a cyclical peak and will be lower on a 6-12 month horizon.