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GFIS Model Bond Portfolio Q3/2023 Review & Q4 Outlook: How To Win During "Higher For Longer"

In this report, we present the quarterly review of the Global Fixed Income Strategy Model Bond Portfolio. The portfolio remains positioned for slower global growth momentum over the next 6-12 months, favoring government bonds over corporate debt. The portfolio also favors government bonds in countries flirting with recession where policy rates are too high (core Europe & the UK).

Global Fixed Income Strategy
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Does The Bear-Steepener Have Legs?

The recent bear-steepening of the US Treasury curve has been driven by the combination of stronger-than-expected economic growth and stable Fed rate expectations. Historically, such periods do not last very long, and we see the current bear-steepening episode ending soon. We also highlight an opportunity in Agency MBS.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Resilient US Retail Sales Growth In September
The US retail sales report delivered a sanguine update on US consumption. Overall spending increased by 0.7% m/m in September – above expectations of a 0.3% m/m rise and following an upwardly revised 0.8% m/m in August. The details of the report were also…
Daily Insights
ZEW: Better Days Ahead?
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment sent an optimistic signal on Tuesday. German sentiment rebounded sharply from -11.4 to -1.1 in October – its highest level since April. Lower inflation expectations and a sharp increase in the share of respondents…
Daily Insights
BoC: Too Early To Declare Mission Accomplished?
Results of the Banks of Canada’s Q3 business and consumer surveys reveal that the aggressive tightening cycle is dampening economic agents’ sentiment. Putting aside the sharp decline at the onset of the pandemic in Q2 2020, the Business Outlook Survey (BOS)…
Daily Insights
Restrictive Financial Conditions: A Drag On Growth
US financial conditions have tightened meaningfully in Q3. While the Goldman Sachs index remains below where it was a year ago, it crossed above the 100 line in late September into restrictive levels after spending most of the year in accommodative territory.…
Daily Insights
The Euro's Correction Is Now Advanced
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, the euro's correction is now advanced. During the first week of the month, EUR/USD briefly dipped below 1.045. Previously, the team argued it would buy EUR/USD below 1.04. A dip to this…
Daily Insights
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The Math Behind Trump’s Nomination

More equity volatility is coming in the short run. Trump’s nomination looks to be smooth, which marginally reduces the incumbent party advantage and increases policy uncertainty.

US Political Strategy by Yushu Ma
US Consumer Inflation Expectations Unexpectedly Jump, Weighing On Sentiment
The preliminary release of the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey delivered a negative surprise on Friday. A bigger-than-anticipated drop pushed the headline sentiment index down to a five-month low of 63. Weaker-than-expected assessments of…
Daily Insights
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Will The Dollar Break Out Or Break Down?

This week's Insight gauges the potential of a dollar breakout or breakdown and suggests a few trade ideas.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor

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