High rates have hurt real estate and, now, banks. The next shoes to drop: Loan growth, profits, and employment. Stay defensive. Recession is probable, but risk assets have not priced it in.

China’s victory in getting KSA and Iran to restore diplomatic relations is of far greater consequence to commodity markets than the past weeks’ bank failures in the US. For China, further success in sorting long-standing security…

Central Banks remain in thrall to the mistaken impression that backwardated oil futures markets are signaling lower headline inflation over the next 2-3 years. This is not the signal the markets are sending: Backwardation is an…

When does rising unemployment become a bigger problem than inflation? The Fed won't cut rates until that happens, probably thwarting market hopes of big cuts in 2H.

Special Report

The G7’s attempt to insert itself in the oil-price-formation process performed by global trading markets will distort markets and the signals driving production, consumption and investment. The G7 will need a face-saving off-ramp to…

Executive Summary The Ukraine war reinforces our key view that commodity producers will use their geopolitical leverage this year. The market is growing complacent again about Russian risks. Iran is part of the same dynamic. If US-…

Executive Summary Petrocurrencies Have Lagged Terms Of Trade  Petrocurrencies have lagged the surge in crude prices. This has been specific to the currency space since energy stocks have been in an epic bull market.Both cyclical and…

Special Report

Executive Summary Earnings Growth Outpacing Multiple Expansion  The US Energy sector is in a good place right now: Rising demand and faltering supply from OPEC 2.0 translate into a price of oil anchored at around $80 to $85…

Highlights The US government issued its first-ever water-shortage declaration for the Colorado River basin in August, due to historically low water levels at the major reservoirs fed by the river (Chart of the Week). The drought…