Oil

Political economy dominates fundamentals going into 2024, as states prepare for war and de-risk supply chains. Asynchronous global growth will elevate commodity-price volatility. We expect oil to trade above $100/bbl in 2024 and continue to favor equity exposure to oil-and-gas producers. Given weak capex, we also favor metals miners and refiners. We remain long the Gold, the XME and COMT ETFs We were stopped out of our XOP ETF with a 12.5% gain; we will re-establish it at tonight’s close.

Global Investment Strategy predicted the surge of inflation in 2021/22 and the immaculate disinflation of 2023. Now their unique framework is predicting a recession in the second half of 2024.

Global instability will continue in 2024 – whatever happens afterward. Slowing economies will exacerbate already high geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty stemming from the US election and foreign challenges to US leadership. Overweight government bonds, defensive sectors, the Americas versus other regions, aerospace/defense stocks, and cyber-security stocks.

In our simulations of fairly deep global recessions averaging -1.5% in 2024 global GDP growth, we expect OPEC 2.0 to reduce output enough to offset lost demand. Even so, we find oil prices drop ~ $22/bbl – from ~ $100/bbl in 1H24 to ~ $78/bbl in 2H24. We remain long the XOP and COMT ETFs to retain oil and commodity exposures.

Our political forecasting scored wins in 2023 but we failed to capitalize on it adequately in our trade recommendations.

A series of notable events took place over the Thanksgiving holiday but none of them force us to change our fundamental assessments. The conflict in the Middle East is likely to escalate rather than de-escalate, while the Taiwan Strait has at least a 50/50 chance of seeing tensions escalate next year.