MacroQuant sees downside risks to stocks over a long-term horizon but is not yet saying that we are at imminent risk of an equity bear market.
Trump, the Fed, the Russo-China bloc, Venezuela, and France are all seeing developments that imply some contrarian tactical views: Long USD, overweight US versus Europe, overweight Europe versus China, and short oil.
MacroQuant is recommending that equity investors keep their finger near the eject button but avoid pressing it for now. The model is warming up to the dollar again and sees scope for oil prices to rise.
An update on the key themes and views that will shape commodity markets through the remainder of 2025.
The dollar is breaking down, as capital leaves the US. The important question investors must answer is how much downside is left for the greenback, and whether depreciation will continue in a straight line over the coming months or pause (…
Acute geopolitical risks, like a massive oil shock, may be abating. But structural geopolitical risk remains high and could upset a blithe market. Cyclical economic risks are underrated as the US slows down and China continues to…
MacroQuant’s US equity z-score is dangerously close to the -1 threshold. Moves below that threshold have reliably coincided with equity bear markets in the past. As such, MacroQuant recommends an underweight on stocks, offset by an…
Investors should modestly underweight equities in their portfolios and look to turn more aggressively defensive once the whites of the recession’s eyes are visible. We think that will happen within the next few months.
President Trump’s big beautiful bill will pass but faces near-term hurdles and will not tighten the government’s belt. It will combine with renewed tariff implementation to generate near-term risk for both the bond and stock market.…
It is not yet clear that the Iran war is deescalating, despite the best efforts of global financial markets to dismiss its significance. True, Iran’s missile attacks on US military bases in Qatar and Iraq appear ineffectual as we go to…