Norway

Highlights The correlation between oil and petrocurrencies has shifted in recent years. It no longer makes sense going long petrocurrencies versus the US dollar blindly. One of the reasons has been the impressive and prominent output from US shale. We are currently long a basket of…

Highlights The world remains mired in a manufacturing recession. As such, it is still too early to put on fresh pro-cyclical trades. Focus on the crosses rather than outright U.S. dollar bets. Two new trade ideas: sell EUR/NOK and buy GBP/JPY. Also consider selling the gold/silver ratio.…

Highlights Currency markets continue to fight a tug-of-war between deteriorating global growth and easing global financial conditions. Such an environment is typically fertile ground for a dollar bull market, yet the trade-weighted dollar is up only 2.3% this year. The lack of more-pronounced…

Dear Client, Please note that there will be no regular Weekly Report next week, as we take a summer break. Our regular publication will resume September 6th. Best regards, Chester Ntonifor, Vice President Foreign Exchange Strategy Highlights Our PPP models show the DXY index to be…

Highlights Our intermediate-term timing models are not sending any strong signals at the moment. That means the balance of forces could tilt the greenback in either way, in what appears to be a stalemate for the U.S. dollar so far.  We are maintaining a pro-cyclical currency stance, but…

Highlights The sharp fall in the bond-to-gold ratio is an important signal to pay heed to. It might suggest that confidence in the U.S. dollar is finally waning. If correct, the sharp rally in crypto currencies over the past few months warrants monitoring. We are maintaining a pro-cyclical…

Highlights The correlation between oil and petrocurrencies has deeply weakened in recent years. One of the reasons has been the prominence of new, important producers, notably the U.S. Oil prices should trend towards $75/bbl by year-end. This will favor the NOK, but the CAD and AUD will be…