New Zealand Dollar
This week, we review our currency positions, based on the latest data from G10 economies.
In this week’s report, we release an update to our long-term REER valuation model and expected future returns for major currencies.
This week’s report explores factors behind the recent rise in the dollar, and whether this could continue in the next month.
In this Insight, we discuss the outlook for monetary policy in New Zealand after this week’s RBNZ policy meeting, and introduce related fixed income and currency trade ideas.
In this report, we go around the globe and survey the near-term outlook for G10 currencies. Our longer-term view on the dollar has been clear, we are sellers. In this report, we review if a tactical sell is also warranted given incoming data and the message from our models.
In this Special Report, we introduce two strategies that use our Central Bank Monitors for global fixed income country allocations and currency trades. We find that using the Monitors in country selection helps improve the performance of a developed markets government bond portfolio. The CBMs can also help substantially minimize the drawdowns on a standard FX carry strategy.
This week's Insight gauges the potential of a dollar breakout or breakdown and suggests a few trade ideas.
In this update to the two Special Reports on FX hedging of global equity portfolios with nine different home currencies, published in 2017, we show that BCA’s proprietary dynamic FX hedging strategies have consistently added value to global equity portfolios. We value quant models as an important input in our decision-making process, but we do not suggest any investor to slavishly follow them, because models cannot capture all the important fundamental changes, as demonstrated in the details of this report.
In this report, we highlight why there are upside risks to Brent crude oil and copper prices going into 2024, with the production side expected to drive deficits in these markets. To take advantage of a potential rally, we suggest basket plays for hedging this outcome.