Natural Gas
We are strategically bullish on the outlook of the energy sector. Domestic and external political constraints asserted themselves, restraining the most negative impulse against this sector by the Biden administration. Go long energy versus cyclicals (ex-tech).
EUR/USD is trying to breach above 1.10. What is the balance of positive versus negative factors that would allow the euro to breakout?
Fertilizer prices will continue to move lower as the natgas price shock touched off by the Russian invasion of Ukraine dissipates. As a result, we expect grain prices to soften another 10% this year. Food-price inflation will move lower over the course of the year as grain prices weaken, provided a weather- or geopolitical shock does not once again send natgas prices higher.
China’s appetite for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is set to rise this year, spurred on by collapsing international LNG prices and a moderate recovery in domestic demand. Global LNG prices will face upward pressure on recovering worldwide demand and a limited supply increase in the second half of the year. We expect LNG prices in China and globally to be 20-30% higher than current levels by the end of this year.
Stay defensive in the second quarter. We can see a narrow window for risky assets to outperform but we recommend investors stay wary amid high rates, supply risks, extreme uncertainty, peak polarization, and structurally rising geopolitical risk.
The risk-on rally is challenging our annual forecast so we are cutting some losses. But we still think central banks and geopolitics will combine to reverse the rally later this year.
Europe’s domestic economy continues to surprise to the upside, can small-cap stocks do the same?
Relative to beaten-down expectations, global growth will surprise on the upside in 2023. Investors should overweight equities for now but look to turn more defensive in the second half of the year.
The European Commission risks retarding the development of long-term contracting for renewable energy just as momentum is building. Policy uncertainty will continue to dog firms and households in the EU, if the Commission's attempts to lower energy costs for consumers at the expense of renewable-energy producers by extending “windfall profits taxes” and mandated lower costs succeed. Such measures will lower producers’ revenues, which will translate into lower renewables investment.
Prefer government bonds over stocks, defensive sectors over cyclicals, and large caps over small caps. Favor North America over other markets. Favor emerging markets like Southeast Asia and Latin America over Greater China, Turkey, and emerging Europe. Stick with aerospace/defense stocks.