Money/Credit/Debt
Markets are rallying on Fed rate cuts and China stimulus but there will also be October surprises ahead of the US election, which Trump could still win. Russia’s conflict with the West is escalating and the Middle East is destabilizing further. Investors should favor US bonds but they should add some risk in emerging markets in response to China’s policy turn.
China’s Politburo announcement is likely to lead to a repricing of China’s growth in the near-term. Read how investors can hedge against this potent threat to our defensive investment stance.
In a widely expected move, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in September. All measures of Australian CPI inflation remain well above the RBA target range. The Commonwealth Energy Bill Relief Fund and other…
The PBoC lowered the 14-day reverse repo rate by 10 bps on Monday, a move that follows a string of easing measures in late July when the central bank lowered the 7-day reverse repo rate, several maturities of the loan prime rate and the 1-year medium-term…
Canadian retail sales grew by a higher-than-expected 0.9% m/m in July from a 0.2% contraction in June. A 2.2% monthly rise in vehicle sales led an otherwise broad-based increase. Ex-auto retail sales also surprised positively, growing by 0.4%. A measure…
The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.25% in September and signaled it was in no rush to lift rates further. This move follows two hikes this year, one of them unanticipated. The signaling is consistent with dovish comments in August…
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Investment Strategy services, most carry investors have covered their positions. Away from day-to-day noise, the longer-term trajectory of yen exchange rates will be driven by fundamentals. …
UK headline CPI grew at a stable 2.2% y/y in August, though the core measure accelerated from 3.3% to 3.6%, in line with expectations. An 11.6% annual increase in airfare largely drove core CPI higher, while offsetting contributions from food and alcohol led…
The Fed started its easing cycle with a bang, cutting the policy rate by 50 basis points in September, above consensus expectations but in line with odds embedded in the futures and OIS curves. Our US Bond strategists had highlighted it is unusual for the…
Stocks are a forward discounting mechanism and routinely top before recessions begin, even if they typically do not swoon until the recession has taken hold. According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service, if consumers were losing momentum and a…