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Monetary

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FICC
Will The Dollar Break Out Or Break Down?

This week's Insight gauges the potential of a dollar breakout or breakdown and suggests a few trade ideas.

Chester Ntonifor
3 years ago
Essentials
Shelter Costs Drive Hotter-Than-Anticipated US Inflation
The US CPI report shows inflation was higher than anticipated in September. Although the headline index decelerated from 0.6% m/m to 0.4% m/m, it is above expectations of 0.3% m/m. The annual rate of change remains at 3.7% y/y – also above consensus estimates…
3 years ago
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CoreMacro
Bonds Are Great Again

US monetary policy is restrictive, as evidenced by a falling jobs-workers gap. The reason that unemployment has not risen is because labor demand still exceeds supply. That will change in the second half of 2024 when the US economy succumbs to recession. Investors should increasingly favor bonds over stocks.

Peter Berezin
3 years ago
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FICC
Get Ready For The Long Pause

Comments on recent Fedspeak, bond market moves and this morning’s CPI report.

Ryan Swift
3 years ago
Essentials
FOMC Minutes: Most Still See Upside Risks To Inflation
The minutes of the September FOMC meeting confirmed that the Fed intends to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer. Although inflation has been moderating, participants continue to view it as unacceptably high and emphasized that they remain “highly…
3 years ago
Essentials
US Small Business Sentiment Deteriorates Again In September
US small business optimism deteriorated for the second consecutive month in September. The NFIB index weakened by 0.5 points to 90.8, slightly below expectations of a more muted decline to 91.0. The latest move brings the index further below the 49-year…
3 years ago
Essentials
China: Would A New Stimulus Round Boost Growth?
Dovish comments by several Fed officials contributed to a Treasury rally and improvement in sentiment towards risk assets on Tuesday. Globally, rumors that Beijing is planning to unleash more stimulus supported Chinese financial assets and global China plays.…
3 years ago
Essentials
NY Fed: Near-Term Consumer Inflation Expectations Inch Higher
Results of the New York Fed’s survey show American consumers’ near-term inflation outlook ticked up in September. Respondents’ one-year ahead inflation expectations rose from 3.6% to 3.7%, and the three-year ahead expectations increased from 2.8% to 3.0%.…
3 years ago
Essentials
Global Manufacturing Remains A Concern For European Equities
As we highlighted in a recent Insight, the stronger-than-anticipated improvement in German factory orders should be viewed with some degree of caution. Germany is the European economy most exposed to the global manufacturing sector. Several leading indicators…
3 years ago
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Equities
Style Chart Pack: The One About Utilities, Materials, And Zombies Among Us

The market has been held hostage by surging rates. Zombie companies are “alive” and are multiplying – they are highly sensitive to surging borrowing costs. Underweight Utilities to reduce portfolio duration. Maintain neutral positioning of Basic Materials but take a granular approach to allocations within the sector.

Irene Tunkel
3 years ago

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