Monetary

New Zealand: High Rates For A Lot Longer

In this Insight, we discuss the outlook for monetary policy in New Zealand after this week’s RBNZ policy meeting, and introduce related fixed income and currency trade ideas.

2 years ago

Essentials

The Last Hurrah?

Q3 US real GDP was revised higher in the second estimate that was released on Wednesday. The 5.2% q/q annualized increase beat expectations of a more muted upwards revision to 5.0% q/q from the advance estimate of 4.9% q/q. In particular, updates to…

2 years ago

Essentials

The Euro Enjoys Some Tailwinds

Recent Euro Area economic data have been sending a less pessimistic signal. Wednesday’s releases are in line with this trend. The European Commission’s confidence indicator shows a mild improvement in economic sentiment in November – confirming the recent…

2 years ago

Essentials

The RBNZ Joins The "Higher For Longer" Club

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) held its key interest rate steady at 5.5% at the November policy meeting yesterday. That decision was as expected, but the messaging surrounding the announcement was surprisingly hawkish. The RBNZ statement noted that…

2 years ago

Essentials

The Easy Money Era Is Likely Over

According to BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service, events that have occurred since the onset of the pandemic have highlighted that the easy money era that prevailed from 2009-2021 is very likely over. The Fed will cut interest rates meaningfully during…

2 years ago

Essentials

On The Drivers Of BTP-Bund Spread Compression

After widening since mid-year, the spread between German bunds and Italian BTPs has been narrowing over the past month. What is driving this move? Our Chief Global Fixed Income Strategist highlighted in Tuesday's BCA Live & Unfiltered livestream that both…

2 years ago

Essentials

OUTLOOK 2024: The End Of The Easy Money Era

Bank Credit Analyst

Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2024. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the next twelve months toward the end of each year.

2 years ago

FICC

Riksbank Post-Mortem And The Lessons For Other Currencies

This report looks at the prospects for the Swedish krona, following the pause by the Riksbank.

2 years ago

Essentials

US Durable Goods Orders Disappoint

US durable goods orders delivered a negative surprise on Wednesday. New orders for manufactured durable goods dropped by 5.4% m/m in October, below consensus estimates of a 3.2% m/m decline. Moreover, the September increase was revised down slightly to 4.0%…

2 years ago

CoreMacro

Poland: The Post-Election Market Strategy

Poland’s inflation will stay elevated. And yet, its return to the European mainstream has improved its financial market outlook. Accordingly, we are recommending new trades on Polish equity, fixed income, and currency.

2 years ago

Monetary

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